The nature of football discourse means that things are often taken to extremes. Take for example the current shape of the Championship table and the big gap generated between the top two and the chasing pack.
On the one hand fans of the top two Leicester City and Ipswich Town are excitedly and optimistically folding their teams huge early points total into equations and projections for big final totals. On the other hand fans of the chasing pack are trotting out the old adage 'There's a long way to go', which despite being bland, generic and low information, is ultimately an objective fact.
The truth as always lies in the grey area between the extremes but any historian of the Championship will know which the more noteworthy of the two narratives is. Each and every season from now until the end of time somebody will be saying 'There's a long way to go', let's be honest those words will be being said this very season up to and past those vital Easter games. What won't be the case every season is the unprecedented start by the top two, with Ipswich winning nine of their first 11 games and Leicester ten. I won't retread all the stats you've probably all heard already but to have one team start so strongly is a big deal, to have two makes for a fascinating chase for position through to Christmas.
The conventional wisdom tells us that scoring two points per game across a Championship season will land a club on 92 points and send them to them to the Premier League via automatic promotion. Barring any winter postponement havoc we will be at the half way point of 23 games played on Christmas Day and Leicester and Ipswich have a very real chance of being around or above the 46 point status that trends to that magic 92 point total. Having a head start in life is no guarantee of reaching a desired outcome but I'm sure every club would sooner have one that not.
THE PLAY-OFFS
Splintering
There's a fascinating mix of teams currently in the play-off spots in the Championship. Some will be looking up at the top two, others will be hoping to consolidate their spots and literally everyone within striking distance will be trying to get into those four positions between third and sixth place. Leeds United tick all of the boxes for the most likely team to hunt down the top two, their current form suggests at minimum a nice smooth and steady closing of the nine point gap that currently exists. They have a seasoned two time Championship winning manager in the dugout and, like Leicester up in first place, have a year one parachute payment coming in this season.
I'd bracket Sunderland in fourth spot as a club who would happily hold tight and take a shot at the end of season knockout tournament. There was a sense that the Black Cats appearance in last seasons play-offs came a bit ahead of schedule only one season after promotion up from League One. You have the feeling they'd be better prepared this time around. Forgive me for damning with feint praise, but surely fans of Preston and Birmingham would be elated if their clubs maintained their current position in the play-off spots.
Preston have started excellently but went into the international break with a three game losing streak and a top six finish for North End would be a first in the second tier since 2009 and somewhat of a triumph. Birmingham had a change of ownership in summer and now a change of manager with Wayne Rooney coming in, the new owners at Blues seem to be in a hurry and play-off football would be a real affirmation their ambitions are being met on the pitch.
In the chasing pack there will be so many teams expecting to be able to get in the top six, that's the sheer joy of the play-offs as it opens up a shot at promotion to teams who would otherwise be nowhere near the conversation. The obvious ones to look out for are current parachute teams Southampton and Norwich City who are both currently one point off. It's also worth keeping an eye out for two of last seasons play-off losers Coventry City and Middlesbrough, with the Sky Blues looking very hard to beat and Middlesbrough on a four game winning streak after their poor start. The current four will almost certainly splinter, in which direction they all go is anyone's guess.
RELEGATION
Cut Adrift
Down at the bottom there's a couple of little gaps opening up too, nothing like the giant one between second and third in the automatic promotion race but revealing nonetheless. These gaps are like the little chips you might get in your car windscreen, they might not amount to anything but if left untreated then in the worst case scenario they can become big cracks over time.
Sheffield Wednesday are three points adrift at the bottom, but they have sought to address their plight with a managerial change that sees young German coach Danny Rohl arrive at Hillsborough. Rotherham are next up and they seem to banking everything on their form at home at the New York Stadium, with only one point so far picked up in six attempts on their travels. The final side in the bottom three is QPR, currently two points adrift of safety with only one win in their last ten in all comps.
We could go back to that dull non specific analysis from the top two conversation and say 'there's a long way to go', or perhaps more relevantly that the gaps are only tiny. Both things are of course true once again, but teams who get relegated tend to score at a rate of less than one point per game. That means that even a small gap can rely on several weeks worth of output at that slow scoring standard as well as others up ahead going even slower.
Regardless of points totals and projections the big worry for the bottom three is who exactly are they going to pull into the mire with them to overtake, it's easy to see the worst case scenario but I can make better arguments for a number of the teams currently above the line trending up and away from the relegation zone. If that happens and we don't get any level of improvement from our bottom three then those cracks will get bigger and they could be properly cut adrift.
